Trade Compliance Penalty Calculator — Export & Import Violation Cost

Calculate trade compliance penalty exposure for export and import violations. OFAC, EAR, ITAR, and CBP penalties — and find the ROI of a compliance program.

Quick answer: Trade compliance penalties: OFAC violations up to $1M per transaction + criminal. EAR export control: up to $1M per violation. CBP import violations: 4× duty owed. A single compliance failure can cost more than years of compliance program investment.

⚖️ Trade Compliance Penalty Cost Calculator

Annual Import/Export Transactions

Primary Compliance Risk

Estimated Violation Rate (%)

% of transactions with potential violation

Avg Penalty Per Violation ($)

Detection Probability (%)

Probability CBP/BIS/OFAC finds the violation

Annual Compliance Program Cost ($)

Screening software, training, compliance officer time

Risk-Adjusted Annual Exposure

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Gross Penalty Exposure

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Compliance Program ROI

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How to Use This Calculator

Select violation type — auto-fills typical penalty ranges. Adjust based on your specific commodity and business model.
Estimate violation rate — start with industry defaults; refine after a compliance audit identifies actual gap rate.
Enter compliance program cost — screening software, export control training, compliance officer time, and legal review.

Worked Example

500 transactions/year, EAR export controls, 0.5% violation rate, $50K penalty, 10% detection, $45K compliance program.

Annual violations: 2.5
Gross exposure: $125,000
Risk-adjusted: $12,500
ROI on $45K compliance: -72% (compliance costs more than expected penalty)

At low transaction volume and low penalty, pure financial ROI may be negative — but compliance programs also prevent criminal liability and reputational damage, which are not captured here. For OFAC violations, even a single event can cost >$1M and trigger business suspension.

Frequently Asked Questions

OFAC (sanctions violations): up to $1M civil per transaction + criminal prosecution. ITAR (defence articles): up to $1.3M civil per violation. EAR (dual-use): up to $1M. CBP import: 4× unpaid duty, sometimes 100% of merchandise value. Voluntary self-disclosure significantly reduces penalties across all programs.

Reporting your own compliance violation to the relevant agency (CBP, OFAC, BIS) before they discover it. Typically reduces civil penalties by 50–75%. Required for ITAR violations. Strongly recommended for OFAC. Consult a trade compliance attorney before submitting — the disclosure process is complex and an improperly submitted disclosure can waive protections.